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2016 President · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 508 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.7% · Republican 34.6%

D+7.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.7 − 34.6 = 7.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 7.10 − (8.213) = -1.113
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.113| = 1.113

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48750, race ID 634 (538 database).