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2016 President · OR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,112 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.8% · Republican 36%

D+7.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 39.09%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.8 − 36 = 7.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.072 − 39.094 = 10.978
  3. Signed miss = 7.80 − (10.978) = -3.178
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.178| = 3.178

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48756, race ID 639 (538 database).