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2016 President · RI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 287 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 29.2%

D+17.8

The certified result

Democrat 54.42% · Republican 38.89%

D+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 29.2 = 17.80
  2. Actual margin = 54.417 − 38.886 = 15.531
  3. Signed miss = 17.80 − (15.531) = 2.269
  4. Absolute miss = |2.269| = 2.269

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48758, race ID 641 (538 database).