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2016 President · SD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 246 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31.3% · Republican 49.6%

R+18.3

The certified result

Democrat 31.74% · Republican 61.53%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.3 − 49.6 = -18.30
  2. Actual margin = 31.737 − 61.531 = -29.794
  3. Signed miss = -18.30 − (-29.794) = 11.493
  4. Absolute miss = |11.493| = 11.493

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48760, race ID 643 (538 database).