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2016 President · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,729 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33.9% · Republican 48.3%

R+14.4

The certified result

Democrat 34.72% · Republican 60.72%

R+26.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.9 − 48.3 = -14.40
  2. Actual margin = 34.716 − 60.722 = -26.006
  3. Signed miss = -14.40 − (-26.006) = 11.606
  4. Absolute miss = |11.606| = 11.606

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48761, race ID 644 (538 database).