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2016 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 5,874 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.8% · Republican 44.7%

R+7.9

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.8 − 44.7 = -7.90
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -7.90 − (-9.000) = 1.099
  4. Absolute miss = |1.099| = 1.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48762, race ID 645 (538 database).