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2016 President · VT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 191 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.5% · Republican 24.5%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.68% · Republican 30.27%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.5 − 24.5 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.678 − 30.269 = 26.409
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (26.409) = -10.408
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.408| = 10.408

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48764, race ID 648 (538 database).