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2016 President · WV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 25.7% · Republican 54%

R+28.3

The certified result

Democrat 26.43% · Republican 68.50%

R+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25.7 − 54 = -28.30
  2. Actual margin = 26.426 − 68.499 = -42.073
  3. Signed miss = -28.30 − (-42.073) = 13.773
  4. Absolute miss = |13.773| = 13.773

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48767, race ID 651 (538 database).