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2016 President · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 151 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26.2% · Republican 59%

R+32.8

The certified result

Democrat 21.88% · Republican 68.17%

R+46.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.2 − 59 = -32.80
  2. Actual margin = 21.877 − 68.173 = -46.296
  3. Signed miss = -32.80 − (-46.296) = 13.495
  4. Absolute miss = |13.495| = 13.495

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48769, race ID 652 (538 database).