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2016 President · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,250 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 51.58%

R+6.5

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.11 − 51.58 = -6.47
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -6.47 − (-5.131) = -1.339
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.339| = 1.339

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48770, race ID 612 (538 database).