2016 Senate · NC
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,250 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%
R+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.696) = 6.696
- Absolute miss = |6.696| = 6.696
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48773, race ID 62 (538 database).