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2016 Senate · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,220 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.666) = 6.666
  4. Absolute miss = |6.666| = 6.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48776, race ID 93 (538 database).