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2016 President · AZ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.38% · Republican 47.1%

R+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.38 − 47.1 = -4.72
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -4.72 − (-3.545) = -1.174
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.174| = 1.174

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48778, race ID 605 (538 database).