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2016 President · AR

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 331 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.14% · Republican 53.35%

R+15.2

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 60.57%

R+26.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.14 − 53.35 = -15.21
  2. Actual margin = 33.653 − 60.574 = -26.921
  3. Signed miss = -15.21 − (-26.921) = 11.711
  4. Absolute miss = |11.711| = 11.711

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48779, race ID 604 (538 database).