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2016 President · DE

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 138 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.03% · Republican 36.42%

D+15.6

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 41.71%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.03 − 36.42 = 15.61
  2. Actual margin = 53.086 − 41.713 = 11.373
  3. Signed miss = 15.61 − (11.373) = 4.237
  4. Absolute miss = |4.237| = 4.237

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48780, race ID 610 (538 database).