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2016 President · ID

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 205 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30.06% · Republican 53.26%

R+23.2

The certified result

Democrat 27.49% · Republican 59.26%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30.06 − 53.26 = -23.20
  2. Actual margin = 27.492 − 59.261 = -31.769
  3. Signed miss = -23.20 − (-31.769) = 8.569
  4. Absolute miss = |8.569| = 8.569

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48782, race ID 615 (538 database).