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2016 President · IA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.07% · Republican 43.87%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 41.75% · Republican 51.16%

R+9.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.07 − 43.87 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 41.753 − 51.162 = -9.409
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-9.409) = 9.610
  4. Absolute miss = |9.610| = 9.610

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48783, race ID 614 (538 database).