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2016 President · LA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 461 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.12% · Republican 51.56%

R+15.4

The certified result

Democrat 38.45% · Republican 58.09%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.12 − 51.56 = -15.44
  2. Actual margin = 38.450 − 58.089 = -19.639
  3. Signed miss = -15.44 − (-19.639) = 4.199
  4. Absolute miss = |4.199| = 4.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48785, race ID 620 (538 database).