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2016 President · ME

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 245 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.33% · Republican 35.08%

D+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.33 − 35.08 = 7.25
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 7.25 − (2.960) = 4.290
  4. Absolute miss = |4.290| = 4.290

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48786, race ID 623 (538 database).