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2016 President · MT

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 115 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34.75% · Republican 53.66%

R+18.9

The certified result

Democrat 35.75% · Republican 56.17%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.75 − 53.66 = -18.91
  2. Actual margin = 35.746 − 56.168 = -20.422
  3. Signed miss = -18.91 − (-20.422) = 1.513
  4. Absolute miss = |1.513| = 1.513

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48787, race ID 628 (538 database).