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2016 President · NM

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 158 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.94% · Republican 38.34%

D+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.94 − 38.34 = 2.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 2.60 − (8.213) = -5.613
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.613| = 5.613

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48789, race ID 634 (538 database).