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2016 President · OK

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 432 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29.85% · Republican 60.78%

R+30.9

The certified result

Democrat 28.93% · Republican 65.32%

R+36.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.85 − 60.78 = -30.93
  2. Actual margin = 28.932 − 65.323 = -36.391
  3. Signed miss = -30.93 − (-36.391) = 5.461
  4. Absolute miss = |5.461| = 5.461

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48790, race ID 638 (538 database).