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2016 President · SD

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 114 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29.45% · Republican 52.16%

R+22.7

The certified result

Democrat 31.74% · Republican 61.53%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.45 − 52.16 = -22.71
  2. Actual margin = 31.737 − 61.531 = -29.794
  3. Signed miss = -22.71 − (-29.794) = 7.083
  4. Absolute miss = |7.083| = 7.083

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48791, race ID 643 (538 database).