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2016 President · UT

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 286 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32.9% · Republican 39.66%

R+6.8

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.9 − 39.66 = -6.76
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -6.76 − (-18.078) = 11.318
  4. Absolute miss = |11.318| = 11.318

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48792, race ID 646 (538 database).