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2016 President · AK

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 617 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 44%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.55% · Republican 51.28%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 44 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.551 − 51.282 = -14.731
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-14.731) = 11.731
  4. Absolute miss = |11.731| = 11.731

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48849, race ID 602 (538 database).