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2016 President · CO

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,378 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 43%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.906) = -3.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.906| = 3.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48850, race ID 607 (538 database).