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2016 President · AZ

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,453 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.545) = 1.546
  4. Absolute miss = |1.546| = 1.546

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48851, race ID 605 (538 database).