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2016 President · GA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 2,002 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.131) = 1.131
  4. Absolute miss = |1.131| = 1.131

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48852, race ID 612 (538 database).