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2016 President · OH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,781 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-8.130) = 2.130
  4. Absolute miss = |2.130| = 2.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48854, race ID 637 (538 database).