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2016 President · WI

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,184 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.764) = 3.764
  4. Absolute miss = |3.764| = 3.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48858, race ID 650 (538 database).