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2016 President · AK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 48%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.55% · Republican 51.28%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 48 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.551 − 51.282 = -14.731
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-14.731) = -2.269
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.269| = 2.269

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48861, race ID 602 (538 database).