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2016 President · AZ

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,609 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.545) = 6.546
  4. Absolute miss = |6.546| = 6.546

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48862, race ID 605 (538 database).