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2016 President · CA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,712 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 31%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 31 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (30.109) = -5.109
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.109| = 5.109

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48864, race ID 606 (538 database).