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2016 Senate · CO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,777 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.665) = 1.335
  4. Absolute miss = |1.335| = 1.335

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48865, race ID 74 (538 database).