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2016 President · CT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,387 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 36%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.57% · Republican 40.93%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 36 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.566 − 40.927 = 13.639
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (13.639) = 2.361
  4. Absolute miss = |2.361| = 2.361

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48866, race ID 608 (538 database).