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2016 Senate · CT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,387 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 34%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.68% · Republican 34.62%

D+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 34 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.682 − 34.619 = 23.063
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (23.063) = 5.937
  4. Absolute miss = |5.937| = 5.937

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48866, race ID 91 (538 database).