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2016 Senate · FL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 4,092 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-7.666) = 8.666
  4. Absolute miss = |8.666| = 8.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48869, race ID 93 (538 database).