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2016 Governor · IN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,700 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.42% · Republican 51.38%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.423 − 51.375 = -5.952
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-5.952) = 7.952
  4. Absolute miss = |7.952| = 7.952

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48873, race ID 49 (538 database).