2016 Senate · IN
SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,700 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.41% · Republican 52.11%
R+9.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 42.413 − 52.112 = -9.699
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-9.699) = -1.300
- Absolute miss = |-1.300| = 1.300
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48873, race ID 78 (538 database).