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2016 President · MN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,292 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 39%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.520) = 5.480
  4. Absolute miss = |5.480| = 5.480

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48883, race ID 625 (538 database).