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2016 Governor · MT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 449 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.25% · Republican 46.35%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.246 − 46.355 = 3.891
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (3.891) = -5.891
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.891| = 5.891

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48886, race ID 51 (538 database).