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2016 President · NE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 988 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 52%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.70% · Republican 58.75%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 52 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.699 − 58.747 = -25.048
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-25.048) = 8.049
  4. Absolute miss = |8.049| = 8.049

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48887, race ID 631 (538 database).