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2016 Senate · NH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 696 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (0.137) = 8.862
  4. Absolute miss = |8.862| = 8.862

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48889, race ID 85 (538 database).