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2016 President · NJ

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,377 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 37%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.45% · Republican 41.35%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 37 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.453 − 41.350 = 14.103
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (14.103) = 0.897
  4. Absolute miss = |0.897| = 0.897

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48890, race ID 633 (538 database).