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2016 President · NY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,208 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 32%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 32 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (23.993) = 1.006
  4. Absolute miss = |1.006| = 1.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48892, race ID 636 (538 database).