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2016 President · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 313 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 57%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.23% · Republican 62.96%

R+35.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 57 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.227 − 62.956 = -35.729
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-35.729) = 7.729
  4. Absolute miss = |7.729| = 7.729

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48894, race ID 630 (538 database).