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2016 Governor · OR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,595 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 41%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 43.45%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.617 − 43.453 = 7.164
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (7.164) = 7.836
  4. Absolute miss = |7.836| = 7.836

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48897, race ID 55 (538 database).