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2016 President · TN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,433 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.72% · Republican 60.72%

R+26.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.716 − 60.722 = -26.006
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-26.006) = 18.006
  4. Absolute miss = |18.006| = 18.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48902, race ID 644 (538 database).