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2016 President · VT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 454 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 25%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.68% · Republican 30.27%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 25 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.678 − 30.269 = 26.409
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (26.409) = 9.592
  4. Absolute miss = |9.592| = 9.592

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48905, race ID 648 (538 database).