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2016 Governor · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,451 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.39% · Republican 45.61%

D+8.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.390 − 45.610 = 8.780
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (8.780) = 4.221
  4. Absolute miss = |4.221| = 4.221

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48907, race ID 58 (538 database).